Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zur Monetary Policy der Bank of England, der EZB, Nord Amerika´s Wirtschaft, Japan´s Firmenaufträge und weiteren Themen hier: Barings | 10.09.2011 21:50 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

* Bank of England leaves monetary policy unchanged

* European Central Bank leaves the Refi rate at 1.5% as OECD downgrades growth forecasts for advanced economies

* North American economic data mixed

* Japan´s factory orders slump by over 8% in July

* Food price rises drive inflationary pressures in some emerging markets

* Swedish court rejects Saab´s plea for protection from creditors

Bank of England leaves monetary policy unchanged…

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee this week voted to hold Bank rate at the record low of 0.5% and take no action to stimulate the UK economy. Meanwhile, manufacturing figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that production rose slightly in July - back to levels seen at the start of the year. Manufacturing output rose 1.9% from the same month a year ago. A separate quarterly survey by the EEF manufacturers’ federation, the main body representing manufacturers, and accountants BDO showed that manufacturers’ output and orders were still growing, with all sectors reporting positive activity over the past three months. The EEF expects manufacturing output to grow by 2.8% this year – down from an earlier forecast of 3.2%. The revised figure is more than double the 1.1% growth that the EEF expects for the economy as a whole. In a separate report, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that the UK economy grew by just 0.2% in the three months to the end of August, following growth of 0.6% in the three months to the end of July.

In other news, the Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers’ index fell from 55.4 in July to 51.1 in August, indicating that the service sector is still growing (any figure above 50 signals an expansion of activity), albeit at a slower rate. Companies reported that input prices were still rising but at the slowest rate for eight months. Companies surveyed indicated that they barely increased their own prices, suggesting that demand was too weak for them to pass on rising costs to customers. Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium said that the value of high street sales in August rose a better-thanforecast 1.5% compared with the same month last year. Food sales held up better than non-food sales as people spent on essentials and cut back on luxuries.

…And so does the European Central Bank in Euroland

The European Central Bank Governing Council left the Refi rate unchanged at 1.5%. The decision followed a report which showed that the OECD had downgraded its growth forecasts for advanced nations - the OECD expects quarterly growth in the second half of 2011 to average less than 0.2% a quarter – an annualised rate of below 1%. The forecasts have been marked down from around 3% annualised growth predicted in May. The OECD blamed the downgrades on the recent turmoil in financial markets, weak momentum in advanced economies, falling confidence and deteriorating labour markets. The organisation recommended that central banks loosen monetary policy if “signs emerge of the weakness enduring”.

In positive news, industrial production in Germany surged a betterthan-expected 4% in July following a 1% contraction in June. Elsewhere, governments reaffirmed commitments to budgetary restraint. In Italy, Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right government agreed to strengthen Italy’s proposed austerity package while Greece’s Finance Minister said that he will implement job cuts immediately in Greece’s public sector. Preliminary figures showed that Greece’s economy contracted by 7.3% in the second quarter on an annual basis. However, the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 16% in June from a record 16.6% in May.

In a surprise move, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) introduced a ceiling on the Swiss Franc of SFr1.20 against the euro, aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the currency. The SNB said that the current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc posed an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carried the risk of pushing it into deflation. The Swiss franc fell over 8% against the euro and the dollar. In recent weeks the central bank has attempted to rein in the franc by flooding the money market with liquidity and using foreign exchange swaps to drive interest rates lower. The Swiss Franc is considered a safe haven by investors amid heightened risks, including concerns over the debt crisis in the Euro area.

North American economic data mixed

This week’s newsflow in North America was mixed. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its US non-manufacturing index increased to 53.3 in August from 52.7 in July, ending three consecutive months of slower growth. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in July to US$44.8bn from a revised US$51.6bn in June. Exports increased by US$6.2bn to US$178bn, boosted by strong demand from Latin America while imports fell US$500m to US$222.8bn. Less positive was a Labour Department report on US jobs growth in August which showed that new positions created in the private sector were offset by an equal number of government lay-offs. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%. Hours worked in the month fell, hourly wages declined, and employment in June and July was revised down by 58,000 The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic survey showed that the US economy expanded at “a modest pace, though some districts noted mixed or weakening activity”.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council voted to leave Canada’s main interest rate unchanged at 1% - where it has been since last September. Output in the world’s 10th largest economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.4% in the second quarter, which the central bank said was “largely due to temporary factors.” The Bank expects slower global growth to be a drag on Canada’s exports but will ease inflation pressures.

Japan’s factory orders fall

In Japan, official figures showed that factory orders dropped 8.2% in July from June, the biggest fall in 10 months. Orders, an indicator of capital spending in three to six months, had been forecast to decline by 4.2%. In a separate report, the Finance Ministry said that the nation’s current account surplus shrank 42% in July as exports slid 2.3% from a year earlier.

In other news, Yoshihiko Noda, Japan’s new Prime Minister, appointed a cabinet intended to ease divisions within his fractious ruling party that have undermined its efforts to cope with disaster reconstruction, fiscal stabilisation and economic weakness. Jun Azumi, a former journalist who was previously the Democratic Party of Japan’s Diet Affairs Chief, has been appointed Finance Minister.

Emerging market news

This week the Bank of Korea voted to leave the benchmark sevenday repurchase rate at 3.25% for a third straight month. South Korea’s inflation rate hit a three-year high of 5.3% in August and exceeded the central bank’s 4% inflation target for the eighth consecutive month. The latest surge in inflation confirmed that agriculture is the weak point for Asia’s fourth biggest economy as food prices rose 13.3% compared with a year earlier. (Heavy rains and flooding over the summer have harmed agricultural production.) Persistently high food prices saw India’s food inflation rate stay above 9% for a fifth straight week. The last two rate increases by the Reserve Bank of India (which took the repurchase rate to 8%) are yet to have an impact on inflation. In Brazil, consumer prices - as measured by the IPCA index - rose 0.37% in August from the previous month, in line with expectations.

Elsewhere, Poland’s Narodowy Bank Polski kept the seven-day interest rate at 4.5%. Poland’s central bank, which halted monetary tightening in July, expects that inflation will subside following four 0.25% rate increases between January and June. Consumer prices rose in July by a slower-than-expected 4.1%, the lowest rate since February.

Company news

Saab Automobile is on the brink of collapse for the second time in three years after a Swedish court this week rejected the company’s plea for protection  from its creditors. The fate of the ailing carmaker now rests with labour unions and suppliers, which must decide whether to push for its insolvency to secure unpaid wages and bills. Union leaders representing the 3,600 workers had been counting on court approval because this would have triggered aid for Saab workers from the Swedish government’s wage guarantee scheme. Saab has been fighting for survival since its previous owner; General Motors of the US threatened to shut it down in 2009 after years of heavy losses. An agreement was made in June to sell nearly 30% to two Chinese companies, Pang Da Automobile Trade Co and Zhejiang Youngman Lotus Automobile in a rescue deal that was supposed to open the Chinese market to Saab. The plan is still awaiting approval from Chinese authorities.

Separately, research group Gartner lowered its growth guidance for global personal computer shipments this year to 3.8% from its earlier forecast of 9.3%, and warned that 2012 would also see a slower start to sales. In contrast to slowing PC sales, Gartner forecast that global smartphone sales will grow by 57.7% in 2011, while sales of tablets are expected to more than treble in the period. The research group said that consumers are more likely to spend money on smartphones and tablet computers while holding onto their desktop PC or laptop for longer. HP’s recent decision to spin off its PC business highlights the difficulties the PC industry is facing. In August, Taiwan’s Acer, the fourth-largest PC manufacturer by shipments, projected a loss for 2011 and Dell cut its revenue forecast for the year.

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