Nachfolgend finden Sie den Original-Kommentar in englischer Sprache:
The global stock markets slumped in recent days. Do you think this is a financial crisis and will lead the global market collapse just like in 1997?
In a bull market that has run for about four years, fund outflows can be expected and are in fact, healthy. Thus, we can expect to see some volatility as investors rebalance and reassess their portfolios. Moreover, the fundamentals of emerging markets equities are much stronger today than they were previously and thus are better equipped to withstand these outflows. The key is to find undervalued companies that are well capitalized and have a unique and competitive product range.
Moreover, amid the market turmoil, emerging markets still look attractive because they offer superior growth coupled with a historically lower risk profile due to factors such as but not limited to the privatization and deregulation of key industries, implementation of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, stable political environments, improving corporate governance, the enhancement of competitiveness through removal of subsidies and reduction of trade barriers, higher productivity and consumption because of a younger and better trained labor force.
How do you see the subprime mortgage problem in the US? Will it affect the global stock markets continuously?
Subprime mortgages have been suffering as stagnant property prices and higher interest rates have left many borrowers unable to meet their commitments. Thus, the impact on financial corporations which have a direct exposure to subprime mortgages could be significant.
Additionally, this could also have some impact on consumer spending and export demand in the US as well. However, dependence on the US as an export outlet has been decreasing in emerging markets. The strong economic growth and consumer demand in emerging markets has meant that there is greater demand for exports in Asia, Latin America, Africa, as well as the European Union and Japan.
Volatility is thus expected to continue in the short-term. The fundamentals of emerging markets are, however, much stronger today than they were about 5 to 10 years ago, and thus are better equipped to deal with this volatility.
How do you view the yen carry trade problem? Would it make another financial crisis?
We can’t predict the extent of the problem, but yes, clearly the carry trade has had an impact on global markets recently. We have also seen investors rebalance their portfolios. However, as mentioned earlier, the fundamentals of emerging markets are much stronger today than they were about 5 to 10 years ago, and thus are better equipped to deal with any resulting fund outflows.
Which three emerging markets do you most favor? What are the reasons?
We continue to find value stocks in all markets, although our portfolios currently have significant exposures to China, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Russia due to their attractive valuations.
