Aurèle Storno und Johanna Keller, "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (18.12.2009): "• Fundamentally, broad supply/demand factors remain supportive: physical gold demand from jewelery remain weak but financial demand largely compensate for this; on the supply side, mine production is still decreasing regularly, year after year, and Central Banks have recently become net buyers (vs. net sellers over the recent decades!).
• The market sentiment for Gold continue to be supportive and seems still to be attracting new interest as has been shown by recent announcement of some Central Banks which are buying gold (like India which bought 200t from the IMF). This, combined with a weak US Dollar, made that gold reached some new historical highs." Daniel Sacks - Portfolio Manager and Sector Specialist, Precious Metals, "Investec GSF Global Gold A Inc" (22.12.2009): "In our opinion, the most important factor driving gold and silver prices is currently investment demand, both by private investors (in the form of ETFs) and government central banks. The recent gold purchase by the Indian central bank, highlights the growing trend of central banks and governments in the emerging economies to increase gold holdings as a means of diversifying their currency reserves. This demand for gold by emerging economy central banks is beginning to reverse a decades-long trend of central banks in the economically advanced countries selling gold. In addition to this potential shift of central banks from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, the continued weakness in real interest rates also continue to provide strong support to gold prices over the medium term.
Silver behaves similarly to gold, being a durable real asset which reacts well to investment demand as investors diversify away from assets with no real yield and into a real asset which is no-one’s liability and can offer inflation-hedge benefits."
Markus Bachmann, CEO Craton Capital und Fondsmanager des "CRATON CAPITAL PRECIOUS METAL FUND" (21.12.2009): "The fate of the USDollar is an important driver for all precious metals. Although most commodities prices will respond to the strength or weakness of the US dollar, gold is a special case because it benefits from its dual role as currency and commodity. So the current uncertainty and debate about whether the US dollar will keep its status as the main reserve currency of the world, benefits gold as gold is also considered a financial reserve (although it could not replace the US dollar entirely). Gold should therefore perform even better than most commodities if the US dollar continues to lose its reserve status and weakens further.
Another important factor currently is the threat of high inflation in the medium term, which sees investors buying ‘hard assets’ including commodities and especially gold.
Other precious metals tend to track movements in the gold price, while having some of their own specific drivers. Silver demand has a higher proportion of industrial usage than gold, so it responds to the economic recovery different to gold (it became very cheap relative to gold during the economic crisis and has recovered relative to gold through 2009). Platinum and palladium are also driven by autocatalyst usage, so new vehicle sales are an important driver – increasing car sales in China is becoming an important factor for these metals. Russian stockpiles of palladium are an important factor in terms of supply of the metal. The quantity of stockpiles remaining, and how quickly they will be sold into the market, is very important for the palladium price, but unfortunately reliable information on this factor is very scarce in the market. Demand for jewellery is also an important factor for platinum, palladium and gold - in general, higher metal prices will hurt demand for that metal and act to slow down the price increase."
Alfred Grusch, Fondsmanager des „Pioneer Funds Austria – Gold Stock“ (14.12.2009): "• Realzins: In den Industriestaaten sind die Realzinsen in den letzten Monaten zwar deutlich gestiegen, jedoch rechnen viele Prognosen für die Emerging Markets mit negativen Realzinsen für 2010. Daher ist für 2010 von einer überdurchschnittlichen Nachfrage nach Gold aus den Emerging Markets auszugehen und diese Wirtschaftsräume dominieren die weltweite Goldnachfrage.
• Industrienachfrage (inkl. Schmuckindustrie): Die Goldnachfrage aus diesem Bereich ist in der Krise stark zurückgegangen. Aktuell erholt sie sich wieder und liegt derzeit nur mehr rund 10-15 % unter den durchschnittlichen Werten der letzten Jahre
• Investmentbereich: dieser Bereich wird naturgemäß stark beeinflusst von der Entwicklung der Realzinsen. Niedrige Realzinsen bedeuten stärkere Goldnachfrage im Investmentbereich, daher ist vor allem aus den Emerging Markets mit starker Nachfrage zu rechnen.
• Auflösung der Sicherungsgeschäfte durch die Minengesellschaften: derzeit decken die offenen Kontrakte nur mehr rund 400 t ab, d.h. dieser Nachfragefaktor der letzten Jahre wird künftig keine bedeutende Rolle mehr spielen - wirkt negativ
• Notenbanken: diese wurden im Laufe dieses Jahres von Nettoverkäufern wieder zu Nettokäufern – entsprechend positive Wirkung auf die Preisentwicklung – 400-500 t Angebot mutiert zu rund 100 t Goldnachfrage
• Minenproduktion: stagniert an sich seit Jahren, heuer dürfte es aber zu einem leichten Plus kommen.
• Gold Recycling: war im Zuge der Krise weit überdurchschnittlich (über 1.200t/Jahr), könnte künftig aber aufgrund des sinkenden Goldanteils in Schmuckstücken wieder rückläufig sein, was den Goldpreis tendenziell unterstützen sollte.
• Reduktion der Goldreserven durch den IWF: die Reduktion der Geldreserven durch den IWF um mehr als 400t wurde als Belastung für den Markt erwartet, was aber so nicht eingetreten ist. So wurden beispielsweise 200 t sofort direkt durch Indien übernommen und haben den Markt nicht belastet.
• ETF: Exchange Traded Funds spielen ebenfalls eine große Rolle, auch bei der Preisentwicklung anderer Edelmetalle wie etwa Silber oder Platin. ETF sind sehr „junge“ Produkte, die sich wachsender Beliebtheit erfreuen und die Preisentwicklung entsprechend beeinflussen. Silber wurde durch ETF erst wirklich für institutionelle Anleger investierbar.
Weiters spielen Maßnahmen zur Ankurbelung der Wirtschaft eine Rolle. So hat zum Beispiel „Cash for Clunkers“ (die US-amerikanische Version der Verschrottungsprämie) einen Nachfrageschub bei Platin und Palladium ausgelöst (Katalysatoren!)."
Frage 2:
e-fundresearch: Welche Edelmetalle sind derzeit attraktive Investments und was sind die Gründe für diese Einschätzung?
Aurèle Storno und Johanna Keller, "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (18.12.2009): "• All precious metals have specific factors driving supply/demand dynamics.
• Gold is the most "financial" of them, as many investors have considered a portfolio allocation to Gold for either protecting against "bear market fears" or against potential future inflation that they see as a consequence of monetary stimulus and other recent governments subszidises.
• Silver has a more industrial background as it is used in many concrete aplications (from electronics to healthcare, through water purification); but many investors consider Silver as a potential leveraged play on Gold so its correlation with Gold is very high.
• Platinum and Palladium demand comes mostly from the car industry, so this year rebound is partly linked to Chinese auto demand surge and US "car for clunkers" program. However the issues in platinum prodcution (notably the power issue in South Africa) haven´t been resolved, so while the recovery will take place the supply and demand imbalances will come back.
• We would suggest to invest in Palladium/Platinum as a recovery play and favor the usual Gold/Silver as a core investment for precious metals exposure."
Daniel Sacks - Portfolio Manager and Sector Specialist, Precious Metals, "Investec GSF Global Gold A Inc" (22.12.2009): "We believe that Gold is an attractive investment both from a capital appreciation perspective and as a diversifier. We believe that gold has finally broken clear of the $700-$1,000 per ounce range that has dominated the last two years, with new parameters being established. We believe that the degree of investment demand will force a peak that is nearer $1,300 per ounce over the next six months, with $1,000 per ounce now becoming the long term floor.
Gold has a very low correlation to other financial assets and acts as an excellent diversifier within a balanced portfolio."
Markus Bachmann, CEO Craton Capital und Fondsmanager des "CRATON CAPITAL PRECIOUS METAL FUND" (21.12.2009): "We believe that gold is an attractive investment as it should continue to benefit from a weak dollar, while it also has a currency aspect and therefore should benefit from the dollar’s declining reserve currency status. However, gold , silver, platinum and palladium are usually strongly correlated so we believe that the outlook for all the precious metals is positive."
Alfred Grusch, Fondsmanager des „Pioneer Funds Austria – Gold Stock“ (14.12.2009): "Wir sind derzeit der Ansicht, dass Gold und Silber die interessantesten Edelmetalle sind. Ergänzend kommen außerdem Platin und Palladium in Frage. In Gold kann man entweder indirekt investieren, über Goldminenaktien (PIA – Gold Stock) oder aber auch über physisches Gold. In Silber in Barrenform ab 250g oder in ETFs, in Platin und Palladium am besten über ETFs."
Frage 3:
e-fundresearch: Wie ist Ihr genereller Ausblick für Gold und Edelmetalle für die nächsten 12-18 Monate?
Aurèle Storno und Johanna Keller, "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (18.12.2009): "• We think that several factors are supportive for gold. The quantitative easing used to deal with the current financial crisis has raised fears of a weakening dollar, and also inflation fears coupled with low interest rates. As gold is negatively correlated to the US Dollar and a way to preserve value in real terms it can be used as a hedge. In this environment several emerging markets central banks have express their desire to diversify their reserve holdings and have thus, like India, bought some gold.
• This situation has also reinforced the interest of investors for gold and may lead to further investment demand which has already increased significantly during the last years, as shown by explosive development of ETFs.
• However, as we have seen recently, gold will remain volatile notably due to US Dollar movements and speculative flows. There is strong supports at USD 1030 and then USD 980."
Daniel Sacks - Portfolio Manager and Sector Specialist, Precious Metals, "Investec GSF Global Gold A Inc" (22.12.2009): "With gold having ‘taken out’ its previous record high this month; we highlight below various ratios and real peak pricing to see where gold could go next. The nominal peak price in 1980 at $850/oz adjusted to account for inflation equates to an equivalent price today of $1,884/oz. The long term average of the gold:oil ratio is 17. Base this ratio with oil at $77/barrel, and we estimate gold should trade at around $1,309. The Dow Jones:gold ratio in the early 1930s and in the 1980s – both periods were when financial markets faced turmoil – sank to below 5. Currently, the ratio is at around 9.7. With the Dow at 9,800 a ratio of 5 would suggest a gold price of $1,960. If the Dow double dips to 7,500, this would suggest a gold price of $1,500."
Markus Bachmann, CEO Craton Capital und Fondsmanager des "CRATON CAPITAL PRECIOUS METAL FUND" (21.12.2009): "We believe that the gold price will be higher in 12 -18 months time."
Alfred Grusch, Fondsmanager des „Pioneer Funds Austria – Gold Stock“ (14.12.2009): "Der langfristige Aufwärtstrend bei Edelmetallen ist nach wie vor intakt. Das wirtschaftliche Umfeld und die Kapitalmärkte sind noch nicht so stabil, dass man davon ausgehen könnte, dass alles Kapital nun wieder in die Aktien- oder Anleihenmärkte fließt. In den Emerging Markets sollten vorerst auch die Realzinsen tief bleiben, was den Aufwärtstrend der Edelmetalle, insbesondere Gold, weiter unterstützt."
Frage 4:
e-fundresearch: Welche Über- und Untergewichtungen haben Sie derzeit im Fonds umgesetzt?
Aurèle Storno und Johanna Keller, "LO Funds - World Gold Expertise (USD) P A" (18.12.2009): "Small caps are overweighted, this is the most important bias."
Daniel Sacks - Portfolio Manager and Sector Specialist, Precious Metals, "Investec GSF Global Gold A Inc" (22.12.2009): "As a general rule, the Investec Global Gold Fund is overweight gold producers, with operations (costs) in weak currencies, having strong balance sheets, and exhibiting growing production profiles. Specific examples of such companies which we are overweight include Newcrest, Agnico-Eagle and Goldcorp.
The fund is underweight those companies which are battling to replace mined reserves."
Markus Bachmann, CEO Craton Capital und Fondsmanager des "CRATON CAPITAL PRECIOUS METAL FUND" (21.12.2009): "We currently see good value in several of the small to mid-sized gold and silver development companies, where current undervalued share prices can be re-rated upwards as the companies remove risks from the projects (for example, by increasing the size, grade or geologic confidence of their ore deposit, by advancing the design, construction and commissioning of the mine and plant successfully, or by delivering consistent operating results)."
Alfred Grusch, Fondsmanager des „Pioneer Funds Austria – Gold Stock“ (14.12.2009): "Der „PIA Gold Stock“ hat im Jahr 2009 seine Benchmark (Amex Gold Miners) bei weitem übertroffen. Fonds: +53,33; Benchmark: +41,83 (die Performanceangaben beziehen sich auf den Zeitraum 30. 12. 2008 bis 11. 12. 2009). Auch in seiner Peergroup hat er hervorragend abgeschnitten. Wesentlich Gründe dafür:
• Entwicklung der Veranlagung eher weg von Mid Caps und hin zu Small Caps. So konnte der Fonds von zahlreichen Übernahmen profitieren.
• Diversifikation in Gesellschaften, die nicht ausschließlich Gold, sondern auch andere Rohstoffe fördern.
• Geografische Streuung und Betonung von Gesellschaften in den Wachstumsregionen Eurasien, Lateinamerika und Afrika (ex Südafrika)
• Relativ hohes Silber-Exposure (10 – 15%)."
Alle Daten per 04.12.2009 in Euro:
