Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Auf welchem Fundament steht eine mögliche Leitzinswende in den USA und welche (realistischen) Entwicklungen könnten Janet Yellen dazu veranlassen 2015 doch keine Zinserhöhungen durchzuführen?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent is the economic foundation of the USA supporting a potential interest-rate hike and which (realistic) headwinds could force Janet Yellen not to raise rates in 2015?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Luke Bartholomew, Investment Manager, Fixed Income, Aberdeen Asset Management (25.03.2015):
"Despite recent weather related weakness, US growth looks solid with labour market data particularly striking. There are good reasons to expect continued above trend growth for several years. However scratch below the surface and it is hard to say how strong the economy is. Headline unemployment is down to 5.5% and GDP growth is healthy but wage growth has been poor. Decent wage growth would reflect more confident companies, greater consumer spending power and a potential increase in inflation. Meanwhile the collapse in the oil price has brought inflation down from levels which were not exactly high in the first place. The US Federal Reserve is as aware of these issues as anyone. They are split on how close the economy is to reaching the critical unemployment rate and how productivity is likely to perform in coming years. Another quandary is how many long-term unemployed will return to work or whether productivity growth will come back to previous levels. Add to that the strength of the dollar, which will impact US exporters amongst others, and it’s understandable to see why the Fed is struggling to decide when to raise interest rates.”
